{"id":10118,"date":"2025-01-10T09:16:59","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T09:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=10118"},"modified":"2025-01-10T09:17:53","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T09:17:53","slug":"prumysl-loni-zazil-dalsi-propad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=10118","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u016fmysl loni za\u017eil hlubok\u00fd propad"},"content":{"rendered":"

Po nad\u011bjn\u00e9m z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m v\u00fdsledku \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu p\u0159i\u0161el v \u0159\u00edjnu pokles o 2,1 %, kter\u00fd byl podle zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch dat \u010cS\u00da za listopad umocn\u011bn je\u0161t\u011b hlub\u0161\u00edm meziro\u010dn\u00edm propadem o 2,7 % v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed.<\/b><\/p>\n

V r\u00e1mci analytick\u00e9 obce byl v pr\u016fm\u011bru o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n jen m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pokles, skute\u010dnost v\u0161ak dala za pravdu sp\u00ed\u0161e na\u0161\u00ed pesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze (a\u010d ne v pln\u00e9m rozsahu), kter\u00e1 byla v\u00fdsledku nejbl\u00ed\u017ee. Ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b je z dne\u0161n\u00edch dat ji\u017e evidentn\u00ed, \u017ee celkov\u011b vyk\u00e1\u017ee objem pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby za rok 2024 dal\u0161\u00ed pokles, a dokonce v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2023 (-0,8 %).<\/p>\n

Listopadov\u00fd propad automotive<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pohledem na\u00a0jednotliv\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed<\/b>\u00a0evidujeme v listopadu v\u00fdrazn\u00fd propad v\u00fdroby v\u00a0automobilov\u00e9m sektoru<\/b> (-7,1 % r\/r), kterou jsme zaznamenali ji\u017e s p\u0159edstihem, kdy\u017e v\u00fdroba osobn\u00edch automobil\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zaostala za p\u0159edlo\u0148sk\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem. Propad je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b d\u00e1n lo\u0148skou vysokou srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladnou, p\u0159esto je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee \u010desk\u00fd automotive \u010del\u00ed, a zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdhledov\u011b bude \u010delit, zna\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, a\u0165 u\u017e v podob\u011b trendov\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu na elektromobilitu, hroz\u00edc\u00edch striktn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch emisn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f EU, ale i dopadu p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch importn\u00edch cel ze strany USA, kam putuje \u010desk\u00fd export zejm\u00e9na skrz N\u011bmecko.<\/p>\n

Tyto faktory budou v\u00fdzvou pro profitabilitu i ostatn\u00edch v\u00fdrobc\u016f v r\u00e1mci EU, kde p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce budou negativn\u00ed rizika p\u0159eva\u017eovat nad p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi pozitivy. Souvisej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdroba\u00a0ostatn\u00edch dopravn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f<\/b>na tom p\u0159itom nen\u00ed l\u00e9pe, kdy\u017e v listopadu zaznamenala nejhlub\u0161\u00ed pokles ze v\u0161ech odv\u011btv\u00ed (-16,3 % r\/r). Po v\u00fdrob\u011b motorov\u00fdch vozidel byla v listopadu nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed brzdou pr\u016fmyslu v\u00fdroba stroj\u016f a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 k jeho poklesu p\u0159isp\u011bla ve v\u00fd\u0161i a\u017e -0,7 p.b., kdy\u017e sama poklesla o 9,4 % r\/r. Pozitivn\u011b tentokr\u00e1t p\u016fsobila naopak v\u00fdroba\u00a0nekovov\u00fdch miner\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdrobk\u016f<\/b>\u00a0\u010di v\u00fdroba kovod\u011bln\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f (krom\u011b stroj\u016f a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed).<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e9 zak\u00e1zky<\/b>v listopadu tak\u00e9 nepot\u011b\u0161ily, kdy\u017e jejich hodnota re\u00e1ln\u011b klesla o 1,4 % meziro\u010dn\u011b. Z dat p\u0159itom vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 znepokojiv\u00e9 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situace st\u00e1le siln\u011b z\u00e1vis\u00ed na probl\u00e9mov\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kdy\u017e dopad poklesu extern\u00ed popt\u00e1vky p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161il zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed zak\u00e1zek z tuzemska. V\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostly zak\u00e1zky ve v\u00fdrob\u011b ostatn\u00edch dopravn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f (+45,1 % r\/r), co\u017e zvy\u0161uje nad\u011bji na obrat v tomto nyn\u00ed ochabl\u00e9m sektoru. Naopak v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00fdroby stroj\u016f a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se popt\u00e1vka d\u00e1le propad\u00e1, kdy\u017e zak\u00e1zky poklesly o -10,6 % r\/r).<\/p>\n

Na\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce<\/b>v pr\u016fmyslu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 situace pohledem zam\u011bstnanosti t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 beze zm\u011bny, kdy\u017e jej\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles \u010din\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako v \u0159\u00edjnu, 2 %. Sn\u00ed\u017eil se v\u0161ak tlak na r\u016fst mezd, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru dosahuje 4,3 % r\/r (vs 7,2 % v \u0159\u00edjnu).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba st\u00e1le neoto\u010dila list a z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v siln\u00e9m \u00fatlumu, kdy\u017e kles\u00e1 nejen objem produkce, ale i nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek, a to zejm\u00e9na t\u011bch ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch exportn\u00edch trz\u00edch dojde v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce k o\u017eiven\u00ed, m\u00edra rizik je v\u0161ak vysok\u00e1. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdzvou i p\u0159echod na v\u00fdrobu s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159idanou hodnotou, kterou l\u00e9pe zvl\u00e1d\u00e1 nap\u0159. automotive, h\u016f\u0159e v\u0161ak nap\u0159. v\u00fdroba stroj\u016f, ale i t\u011b\u017eba a dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed.<\/b><\/p>\n

Autor: V\u00edt Miku\u0161ek, analytik RB<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po nad\u011bjn\u00e9m z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m v\u00fdsledku \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu p\u0159i\u0161el v \u0159\u00edjnu pokles o 2,1 %, kter\u00fd byl…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9446,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,10,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-statistika","category-vyroba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10118"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10121,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10118\/revisions\/10121"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}