{"id":1048,"date":"2023-12-20T07:49:45","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T07:49:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=1048"},"modified":"2023-12-20T10:03:03","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T10:03:03","slug":"eqsa-cesko-se-muze-vyhnout-recesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=1048","title":{"rendered":"EqSA: \u010cesko se m\u016f\u017ee vyhnout recesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rok 2023 se nesl ve znamen\u00ed nast\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed recese. P\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 konflikty p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ely nejistotu na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Obyvatel\u00e9 Evropy se nav\u00edc museli pot\u00fdkat se st\u00e1le aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou kriz\u00ed a\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdmi cenami. To v\u0161e se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159el\u00e9valo i do \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Jak vypadal leto\u0161n\u00ed rok? Ude\u0159\u00ed krize po nov\u00e9m roce naplno?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdkon \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky ani letos nep\u0159ekonal \u00farove\u0148 z\u00a0doby p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed Covidu-19. Za tento rok se naopak o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 pokles hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,5 %. Vliv\u016f, kter\u00e9 negativn\u011b p\u016fsobily na v\u00fdvoj HDP, bylo n\u011bkolik. Ekonomiku dle makroekonomick\u00e9 predikce Ministerstva financ\u00ed zpomalila meziro\u010dn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed akumulace z\u00e1sob. Dom\u00e1cnosti se st\u00e1le vyrovn\u00e1valy s\u00a0dopady zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 inflace, co\u017e m\u011blo vliv na jejich ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu a v\u00fdslednou v\u00fdkonnost ekonomiky. V\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm roce se v\u0161ak ji\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst ekonomiky, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b o zhruba 1,8 %. Ten m\u00e1 b\u00fdt ta\u017een zejm\u00e9na obnovenou zv\u00fd\u0161enou spot\u0159ebou dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, soukrom\u00fdmi investicemi a r\u016fstem exportn\u00edch trh\u016f.<\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace byla zp\u016fsobena zejm\u00e9na vysok\u00fdmi cenami energi\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm popt\u00e1vky dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed po konci covidov\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. V\u00fdvoj inflace v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku odpov\u00eddal p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm analytik\u016f a \u010cNB, kter\u00e1 predikovala pr\u016fm\u011brnou hodnotu okolo\u00a011 %. Pro rok 2024 predikce Ministerstva financ\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace klesne ke 3,3 %, tedy op\u011bt bl\u00ed\u017ee k\u00a0infla\u010dn\u00edmu c\u00edli \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky. Tento pokles bude d\u00e1n zejm\u00e9na odezn\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f. Okolo \u00farovn\u011b 3 % by se inflace m\u011bla pohybovat po cel\u00fd n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed rok.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho by mohla \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka ji\u017e sni\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. V\u00a0listopadu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku bankovn\u00ed rada poprv\u00e9 od zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed projedn\u00e1vala jejich mo\u017en\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, av\u0161ak s\u00a0negativn\u00edm stanoviskem. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee na konci roku 2024 bude \u010dinit hlavn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba 4,5 %. Takov\u00e9to chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010cNB by mohlo o\u017eivit \u010desk\u00fd hypote\u010dn\u00ed trh, kter\u00fd v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech dosahoval sv\u00e9ho dna.<\/p>\n

\u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po nemovitostech<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e uplynul\u00fd rok p\u0159inesl m\u00edrn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed nemovitostn\u00edho trhu, av\u0161ak v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu o\u017eiven\u00ed br\u00e1nily relativn\u011b vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby hypot\u00e9k Na podzim roku 2023 ji\u017e n\u011bkolik bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f upravilo sv\u00e9 sazby s\u00a0p\u0159edstihem na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdrok\u016f p\u0159edstavitel\u016f centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed dostupn\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky ke konci roku atakovaly hranici 5 %. V\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm roce by tak mohla op\u011bt vzr\u016fst popt\u00e1vka po reziden\u010dn\u00edch nemovitostech. Zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0Praze by se pak podle odhad\u016f developer\u016f m\u011bla zv\u00fd\u0161it popt\u00e1vka po novostavb\u00e1ch a\u017e o 4 %.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm faktorem p\u0159i posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed stability a vyhl\u00eddek dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky je situace na pracovn\u00edm trhu. Odhady Ministerstva financ\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti mohla za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok \u010dinit 2,7 %, co\u017e je jist\u011b dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro \u010desk\u00e9 obyvatele, nebo\u0165 se dlouhodob\u011b dr\u017e\u00edme pod evropsk\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem. V\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm roce by m\u011bla nezam\u011bstnanost r\u016fst, av\u0161ak jen velmi pomalu. Na \u010desk\u00e9m trhu pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly i p\u0159es negativn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha plynouc\u00ed z\u00a0nedostatku uchaze\u010d\u016f o pr\u00e1ci. D\u00e1le tak budou zam\u011bstnanci tla\u010dit na r\u016fst mezd. Zat\u00edmco doposud navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed plat\u016f zaost\u00e1valo za inflac\u00ed, v\u00a0roce 2024 by mohlo kone\u010dn\u011b doj\u00edt i k\u00a0r\u016fstu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy.<\/p>\n

Energetika na cest\u011b k nez\u00e1vislosti<\/strong><\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty Evropsk\u00e9 unie v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2023 i nad\u00e1le sni\u017eovaly svou z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00e9m zemn\u00edm plynu. Hlavn\u00ed v\u00a0roli v\u00a0budov\u00e1n\u00ed energetick\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti hr\u00e1l zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn (LNG). Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b proto za\u010daly ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e investovat do pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 infrastruktury. Byla napl\u00e1novan\u00e1 v\u00fdstavba \u0159ady termin\u00e1l\u016f na zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edmo\u0159sk\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch. D\u00edky tomu \u010desk\u00e9 ministerstvo pr\u016fmyslu a\u00a0obchodu z\u00edskalo kapacitu v\u00a0nizozemsk\u00e9m termin\u00e1lu, kter\u00e1 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 t\u0159etin\u011b na\u0161\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed spot\u0159eby. Vedle toho je \u010cesk\u00e1 republika mnohem l\u00e9pe p\u0159ipravena na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed topnou sez\u00f3nu ne\u017e v\u00a0minulosti, d\u00edky rekordn\u00ed napln\u011bnosti z\u00e1sobn\u00edku zemn\u00edho plynu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed hranici 90 %.<\/p>\n

P\u0159es rostouc\u00ed sob\u011bsta\u010dnost z\u016fstaly ceny energi\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2023 volatiln\u00ed. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku cena elekt\u0159iny i\u00a0plynu v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesala a\u017e na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148. V\u00a0\u010dervnu v\u0161ak op\u011bt za\u010dal zdra\u017eovat plyn zejm\u00e9na vinou odst\u00e1vky z\u00e1vod\u016f na jeho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0Norsku. Cena elekt\u0159iny a plynu se v\u0161ak v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce dr\u017eela pod \u00farovn\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho stropu. \u0160patnou zpr\u00e1vou je, \u017ee se neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 markantn\u00ed zlevn\u011bn\u00ed cen energi\u00ed v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm roce. Na druhou stranu st\u00e1t uvoln\u00ed na pomoc energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdm firm\u00e1m s cenami energi\u00ed 3,5 miliardy korun. Pen\u00edze pou\u017eije na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed plateb firem na hladin\u011b vysok\u00e9ho a velmi vysok\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed za obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie, a to v pr\u016fm\u011bru o dv\u011b t\u0159etiny.<\/p>\n

Promluv\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 situace<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd i pro ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance. Vl\u00e1dou v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru roku p\u0159edstaven\u00e1 \u00fasporn\u00e1 legislativa m\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017eit deficit st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu z leto\u0161n\u00edch 3,5 % HDP na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u00fdch 1,2\u00a0% HDP v roce 2025. \u00daspory ve v\u00fd\u0161i t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 miliard pro rok 2024 a v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 miliard v dal\u0161\u00edm roce se budou t\u00fdkat v\u011bt\u0161inou v\u00fddajov\u00e9 strany st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladny, nap\u0159\u00edklad skrze sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edch dotac\u00ed, plat\u016f ve st\u00e1tn\u00ed sf\u00e9\u0159e nebo provozn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f o 5 % na ka\u017ed\u00e9m resortu. Tento n\u00e1vrh je mimo jin\u00e9 p\u0159edm\u011btem protest\u016f, jeliko\u017e se dot\u00fdk\u00e1 v\u0161ech skupin obyvatelstva. \u00dasporn\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek v\u0161ak p\u0159edstavuje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd prvn\u00ed krok sm\u011brem ke konsolidaci ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch rozpo\u010dt\u016f a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed udr\u017eitelnosti ekonomiky zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro stav ekonomiky v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce bude, zda dojde k\u00a0meziro\u010dn\u00edmu poklesu inflace ke\u00a0dvouprocentn\u00edmu c\u00edli. To by mohlo stabilizovat dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiku, u kter\u00e9 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst. Zda se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 vypln\u00ed bude z\u00e1le\u017eet nejen v\u00fdvoji jednotliv\u00fdch makroekonomick\u00fdch veli\u010din, ale tak\u00e9 na v\u00fdvoji geopolitick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0Evrop\u011b.<\/p>\n

Oxana \u0160najberg, EqSA<\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rok 2023 se nesl ve znamen\u00ed nast\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed recese. P\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 konflikty p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ely nejistotu na sv\u011btov\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":529,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-komentar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1048"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1048\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1061,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1048\/revisions\/1061"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}