{"id":11915,"date":"2025-03-25T07:29:16","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T07:29:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=11915"},"modified":"2025-03-25T07:29:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T07:29:16","slug":"stabilizaci-ceske-ekonomiky-ovlivni-evropsky-autoprumysl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=11915","title":{"rendered":"Stabilizaci \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky ovlivn\u00ed evropsk\u00fd autopr\u016fmysl"},"content":{"rendered":"

R\u016fst HDP a pokles inflace. Takov\u00fd je podle analytik\u016f spole\u010dnosti Coface o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00fdvoje \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky v\u00a0roce 2025. Coface dlouhodob\u011b monitoruje ekonomick\u00e9 klima ve\u00a0160 zem\u00edch sv\u011bta. \u010ceskou republiku p\u0159itom pravideln\u011b \u0159ad\u00ed mezi zem\u011b s\u00a0nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b dobr\u00fdm podnikatelsk\u00fdm prost\u0159ed\u00edm. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako loni, i letos p\u0159edstavuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko pro pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0\u010cesku stagnuj\u00edc\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika, kam sm\u011b\u0159uje t\u0159etina \u010desk\u00e9ho exportu. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee na p\u011btin\u011b na\u0161eho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdvozu se pod\u00edl\u00ed automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, pozitivn\u00ed bilance roku 2025 bude z\u00e1viset tak\u00e9 na o\u017eiven\u00ed popt\u00e1vky Evropan\u016f po automobilech.<\/p>\n

Barometr rizik spole\u010dnosti Coface pod\u00e1v\u00e1 pravideln\u00fd p\u0159ehled o stavu podnikatelsk\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed ve 160 zem\u00edch sv\u011bta. Nav\u00edc kvart\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1v\u00e1 rizika ve 13 hlavn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00edch ve 28\u00a0zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed zhruba 88 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP. Podle analytik\u016f Coface je \u010cesk\u00e1 republika dlouhodob\u011b stabiln\u00ed zem\u00ed, a v\u00a0tomto trendu bude pokra\u010dovat i v\u00a0roce 2025. Celkov\u011b dobr\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b sr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed na politick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b. Naopak pozitivn\u011b je hodnocen otev\u0159en\u00fd trh a stabiln\u00ed podnikatelsk\u00e9 klima.<\/p>\n

\u201eR\u016fst \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky dos\u00e1hne v\u00a0roce 2025 \u00farovn\u011b kolem 1,5 a\u017e 1,8 % a bude ta\u017een p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm spot\u0159ebou dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 bude stabiln\u011b r\u016fst d\u00edky pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu r\u016fstu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd a relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 inflaci,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Martin Proch\u00e1zka, \u0159editel \u00fapisu rizika pro \u010ceskou republiku a Slovensko ze spole\u010dnosti Coface. \u201eO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me pozvoln\u00e9 o\u017eivov\u00e1n\u00ed ve stavebnictv\u00ed, kde siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu br\u00e1n\u00ed ne zcela funk\u010dn\u00ed stavebn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, ale pozitivn\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby i r\u016fst kupn\u00ed s\u00edly.\u201c<\/i><\/em><\/p>\n

Stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed zrychl\u00ed, automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl zbrzd\u00ed, pot\u00e1hnou maloobchod a potraviny<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eOde dna by se v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce mohlo odrazit \u010desk\u00e9 stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed a kovov\u00fdroba, nicm\u00e9n\u011b k\u00a0celkov\u00fdm \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e negativn\u011b,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Martin Proch\u00e1zka. Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba bude minim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku d\u00e1le klesat. V\u00fdzvou z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed, nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0N\u011bmecku a obchodn\u00ed politika Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f americk\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce ovlivn\u00ed v\u00fdkon \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky v\u00a0roce 2025 automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee vozidla tvo\u0159\u00ed 21 % tuzemsk\u00e9ho exportu, je to logick\u00e9. \u201eZat\u00edmco lo\u0148sk\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla pr\u016fmyslu ovliv\u0148oval n\u00e1\u0161 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed segment automotive pozitivn\u011b, u\u017e ve druh\u00e9m pololet\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku ztr\u00e1cel svoji dynamiku a v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0predikuje Martin Proch\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b lze \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee ve znamen\u00ed v\u00fdzev bude rok 2025 pr\u00e1v\u011b pro evropsk\u00e9 automobilky. Zat\u00edmco v\u00a0\u010cesku se segment automotive p\u0159esunul z\u00a0kategorie st\u0159edn\u00edho rizika do vysok\u00e9ho, z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 automobilky se propadly do oblasti velmi vysok\u00e9ho rizika. Naopak pozitivn\u00ed trend sleduje \u010desk\u00e9 potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, farmacie a maloobchod. Ty Coface hodnot\u00ed jako odv\u011btv\u00ed s\u00a0mal\u00fdm a\u017e st\u0159edn\u00edm rizikem.<\/p>\n

Sv\u011btov\u00fd r\u016fst, americk\u00e1 nejistota, evropsk\u00e1 stagnace <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. vyd\u00e1n\u00ed barometru rizik spole\u010dnosti Coface se v\u011bnuje tak\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00edm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm pro rok 2025. Ten se ponese ve znamen\u00ed pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed divergence mezi USA a Evropou, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch rizik pro rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se trhy a p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch nejistot. Celosv\u011btov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst predikuj\u00ed analytici na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako loni \u2013\u00a0tedy 2,7 %. Hlavn\u00ed nejistotou je dopad ekonomick\u00e9 a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky nov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 administrativy.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u201eKl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 bude sledovat v\u00fdvoj obchodn\u00ed politiky Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kde by p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zaveden\u00ed cel a deliberalizace sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu zas\u00e1hly \u010deskou, exportn\u011b orientovanou ekonomiku nejsiln\u011bji z\u00a0cel\u00e9 EU,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0varuje Martin Proch\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

    A\u010dkoli glob\u00e1ln\u011b se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 stabiln\u00ed r\u016fst, v euroz\u00f3n\u011b bude posun omezen\u00fd, s\u00a0v\u00fdzvami zejm\u00e9na v sektorech v\u00fdroby a stavebnictv\u00ed, kde ukazatele zat\u00edm nenazna\u010duj\u00ed o\u017eiven\u00ed. Navzdory klesaj\u00edc\u00ed inflaci m\u016f\u017ee nedostatek d\u016fv\u011bry obyvatel negativn\u011b ovlivnit spot\u0159ebu. R\u016fst bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b slab\u00fd v It\u00e1lii a zejm\u00e9na v N\u011bmecku. Francie, kter\u00e1 si v roce 2024 vedla l\u00e9pe ne\u017e jej\u00ed soused\u00e9 d\u00edky ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm v\u00fddaj\u016fm a olympijsk\u00fdm hr\u00e1m v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei, by m\u011bla v roce 2025 tak\u00e9 zpomalit. Situaci neprosp\u011bje ani mo\u017en\u00e9 zhor\u0161en\u00ed situace na trhu pr\u00e1ce v\u00a0d\u016fsledku propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed tov\u00e1ren, stagnace investic navzdory klesaj\u00edc\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m \u010di bezprecedentn\u00ed nedostatek financov\u00e1n\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch ekonomik.<\/p>\n

    Z\u00a0pohledu segment\u016f se bude t\u011b\u0161it nejklidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu prost\u0159ed\u00ed farmacie. Ve v\u0161ech sledovan\u00fdch regionech je j\u00ed predikov\u00e1no nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed riziko. Dob\u0159e si povede tak\u00e9 potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a energetika, resp. v\u00fdroba a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed paliv. Na opa\u010dn\u00e9m konci je stavebnictv\u00ed a textiln\u00ed v\u00fdroba s\u00a0vysokou rizikovost\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d regiony. Optim\u00e1ln\u011b na tom nebude ani metalurgie a d\u0159evozpracuj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fmysl. Zat\u00edmco zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed kov\u016f m\u00e1 alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed perspektivu v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, d\u0159eva\u0159i by m\u011bli b\u00fdt obez\u0159etn\u00ed ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho kontinentu. Kapitolou sama pro sebe je automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Popt\u00e1vka po osobn\u00edch automobilech v\u00a0roce 2024 stagnovala a v\u00fdrobn\u00ed ukazatele nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee produkce ztr\u00e1c\u00ed dynamiku ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b zem\u00ed regionu. Evropsk\u00fd automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl se v roce 2025 bude muset vypo\u0159\u00e1dat zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 konkurenci z \u010c\u00edny a nejistot\u011b na americk\u00e9m trhu.<\/p>\n

    Celkov\u011b lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e1 situace v Evrop\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 k\u0159ehk\u00e1 a nejist\u00e1. Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b budou muset hledat cestu, jak v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm obdob\u00ed podpo\u0159it ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst a stabilitu. \u201eK pozitivn\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji m\u016f\u017ee napomoci nap\u0159\u00edklad rozhodnut\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f k\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm investic\u00edm do obrany,\u201c <\/i><\/em>nazna\u010duje jednu z\u00a0mo\u017enost\u00ed Martin Proch\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

    Zdroj: Coface<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    R\u016fst HDP a pokles inflace. Takov\u00fd je podle analytik\u016f spole\u010dnosti Coface o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00fdvoje \u010desk\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11915"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11916,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915\/revisions\/11916"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/91"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}