{"id":13567,"date":"2025-06-02T11:40:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T11:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=13567"},"modified":"2025-06-02T11:45:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T11:45:28","slug":"cba-ceska-ekonomika-letos-poroste-o-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=13567","title":{"rendered":"\u010cBA: ekonomika letos poroste o 1,7 %"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div><b>Hlavn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 bank zastoupen\u00ed v prognostick\u00e9m panelu \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace (\u010cBA) o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce pomalej\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 1,7 % a v roce 2026 sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zrychlen\u00ed na 2,0 %. <\/b><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Je\u0161t\u011b v \u00fanoru \u010cBA o\u010dek\u00e1vala pro leto\u0161ek r\u016fst ekonomiky o 2,1 % a pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok o 2,4 %). Do hor\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdhledu se v\u00fdrazn\u011b propsal negativn\u00ed dopad obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek a nejistota s nimi spojen\u00e1. Podle ankety \u010cBA ukousnou obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky z r\u016fstu \u010desk\u00e9ho HDP v t\u011bchto letech 0,8 % bodu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v pr\u016fm\u011bru analytici p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed pro rok 2026 ust\u00e1len\u00ed americk\u00fdch cel na evropsk\u00e9 dovozy ve v\u00fd\u0161i 12 %.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Ov\u0161em startovac\u00ed pozice \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky je o n\u011bco siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jsme \u010dekali v \u00fanoru, \u010di ne\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla HDP za prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Proto obdobn\u011b jako v \u00fanoru, nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 dopady do \u010d\u00edsel spojen\u00fdch s trhem pr\u00e1ce \u010di inflac\u00ed, co\u017e limituje i reakci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky. Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mzda dos\u00e1hne p\u0159edcovidov\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div>V z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce s nepatrn\u00fdm zpomalen\u00edm meziro\u010dn\u00edho r\u016fstu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen k 2,3 % a s pouze dal\u0161\u00edm m\u00edrn\u00fdm zvoln\u011bn\u00edm v roce 2026 na 2,2 %. V leto\u0161n\u00edm roce zm\u00edrn\u00ed r\u016fst nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch mezd o v\u00edce ne\u017e jeden procentn\u00ed bod na 5,9 % a v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce d\u00e1le pod 5 %, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt st\u00e1le lehce proinfla\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy v na\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze porostou o 3,5 % a 2,7 % po 4,5 % r\u016fstu v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce, co\u017e je nepatrn\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trajektorie ne\u017e v \u00fanorov\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu. Zhor\u0161en\u00ed trhu pr\u00e1ce odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed o\u017eiven\u00ed ekonomiky, ale st\u00e1le \u010dek\u00e1me sp\u00ed\u0161e stabilizaci m\u00edry nezam\u011bstnanosti ne\u017e jej\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nad\u00e1le pozvoln\u011b klesat, ov\u0161em pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok st\u00e1le vid\u00edme prostor pro jedno dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed repo sazby na 3,25 % a v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce na 3 %. Tento v\u00fdhled se od listopadu nezm\u011bnil, jeliko\u017e slab\u0161\u00ed o\u017eiven\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed je st\u00e1le doprov\u00e1zeno siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed inflac\u00ed v n\u011bkter\u00fdch segmentech ekonomiky. Rovn\u011b\u017e vn\u00edm\u00e1me men\u0161\u00ed prostor pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed kurzu koruny, a to k 24,7 za euro koncem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku z 25 K\u010d na konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>Zdroj: \u010cBA<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>VIDEO z prezentace progn\u00f3zy \u010cBA:<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8VLKdLsMAMc\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8VLKdLsMAMc<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_vertical_sharing heateor_sss_bottom_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbanking.cz\/?p=2793\">\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_ul\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hlavn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 bank zastoupen\u00ed v prognostick\u00e9m panelu \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace (\u010cBA) o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13569,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,10,66],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-statistika","category-video"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13567"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13567\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13574,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13567\/revisions\/13574"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13569"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}