{"id":13788,"date":"2025-06-09T09:44:32","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T09:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=13788"},"modified":"2025-06-09T09:44:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-09T09:44:32","slug":"cekaji-automotive-sektor-lepsi-zitrky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=13788","title":{"rendered":"\u010cekaj\u00ed automotive sektor lep\u0161\u00ed z\u00edt\u0159ky?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce meziro\u010dn\u011b v dubnu bez kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sice m\u00edrn\u011b poklesla (-1,1 %), ale proto\u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed duben m\u011bl o jeden pracovn\u00ed den m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v loni, v\u00fdroba po tomto vyhlazen\u00ed dat vzrostla o 2 %. Tento v\u00fdsledek skon\u010dil t\u011bsn\u011b pod na\u0161\u00ed predikc\u00ed (2,4 %). Je to ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc v \u0159ad\u011b, kdy pr\u016fmysl vzrostl, ale dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00fd.<\/b><\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b jako v \u00fanoru a b\u0159eznu i nyn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b pomohl zejm\u00e9na p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny<\/b>. Srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna z minul\u00e9ho roku je toti\u017e velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1 vzhledem k velmi tepl\u00e9mu po\u010das\u00ed v prvn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roku 2024. Pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj pozorujeme tak\u00e9 v potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed \u010di ve v\u00fdrob\u011b elektrick\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, naopak produkce\u00a0v automobilov\u00e9m sektoru<\/b>\u00a0poklesla o necel\u00e1 2 %.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b s na\u0161\u00edm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm odv\u011btv\u00edm nen\u00ed v\u0161echno \u0161patn\u011b, kdy\u017e\u00a0hodnota nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek vzrostla o v\u00edce ne\u017e 18 % a p\u0159isp\u011bla k celkov\u00e9mu r\u016fstu nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek (12,7 %) v\u00edce ne\u017e z poloviny (+6,85 p.b.)<\/b>. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda je tato dynamika dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eiteln\u00e1, nebo se jedn\u00e1 pouze o jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd v\u00fdst\u0159el. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 nelze opomenout pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e1 cla ve v\u00fd\u0161i 25 %, kter\u00e1 situaci automobilov\u00e9mu sektoru ani p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm neuleh\u010duje.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zap\u0159\u00ed\u010dinily r\u016fst pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby v dubnu, do t\u00e9to skupiny pat\u0159\u00ed\u00a0v\u00fdroba z\u00e1kladn\u00edch kov\u016f, hutn\u00ed zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed kov\u016f a slev\u00e1renstv\u00ed<\/b>. U tohoto odv\u011btv\u00ed je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pozorovat v\u00fdvoj v pr\u016fb\u011bhu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, kdy v lednu byl zaznamen\u00e1n v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles o zhruba 5 %, od t\u00e9 doby ale v\u00fdroba roste, a dokonce zrychluj\u00edc\u00edm tempem, naposledy o necel\u00fdch 7 %.<\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj sice byl pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ovlivn\u011bn snahou americk\u00fdch firem p\u0159edz\u00e1sobit se materi\u00e1ly, surovinami i v\u00fdrobky, nicm\u00e9n\u011b i p\u0159es to m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dovat potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vyman\u011bn\u00ed se z recese energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly citeln\u011b zasa\u017eeny skokov\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem cen energi\u00ed zejm\u00e9na v letech 2022-2023. Tuto tezi podporuje i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. V tuto chv\u00edli je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 pova\u017eovat aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj za zlom, ale v\u00fdhled je relativn\u011b slibn\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Zpracovatelsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl<\/b>\u00a0na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b defacto stagnuje, ale optimismus firmy neopou\u0161t\u00ed, jak uk\u00e1zal report PMI. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj bude ale zejm\u00e9na z\u00e1viset na zahrani\u010dn\u00edm v\u00fdvoji, kde budeme sledovat prim\u00e1rn\u011b v\u00fdvoj v N\u011bmecku a celn\u00ed tenze ve sv\u011bte. Pokud nedojde k hmatateln\u00e9mu pokroku, pozitivn\u00ed n\u00e1lada podnikatele m\u016f\u017ee rychle opustit.<\/p>\n

Trend, kter\u00fd pozorujeme ji\u017e dlouh\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce, i tentokr\u00e1t se\u00a0zam\u011bstnanost v pr\u016fmyslu sn\u00ed\u017eila o 2 %<\/b>. Naopak pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 hrub\u00e1 mzda se zv\u00fd\u0161ila o 7,5 %, co\u017e bylo nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed tempo v r\u00e1mci tohoto roku. Ji\u017e celon\u00e1rodn\u00ed statistika zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 ve st\u0159edu uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee mzdov\u00e1 dynamika zat\u00edm nezpomaluje a tento \u00fadaj z pr\u016fmyslu toto pouze potvrzuje.
\n<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmysl se pomali\u010dku a polehou\u010dku nadechuje. O\u017eiven\u00ed je ale v tuto chv\u00edli postaveno na relativn\u011b k\u0159ehk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladech. Jedn\u00edm z nich je n\u00edzk\u00e1 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna u v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny a d\u00e1le tak\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd efekt p\u0159edz\u00e1soben\u00ed americk\u00fdch cel v reakci na o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 zaveden\u00ed cel. P\u0159esto vid\u00edme d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd obrat k lep\u0161\u00edm z\u00edt\u0159k\u016fm. Po dvou letech propadu by mohl pr\u016fmysl zaznamenat kladn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek. To bude ale z\u00e1viset p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na kondici n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky a celn\u00edm v\u00fdvoji.<\/b><\/p>\n

Autor: Martin Kron, analytik RB<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce meziro\u010dn\u011b v dubnu bez kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sice m\u00edrn\u011b poklesla (-1,1 %), ale proto\u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":303,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,10,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-statistika","category-vyroba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13789,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13788\/revisions\/13789"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}