{"id":15650,"date":"2025-08-21T08:23:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T08:23:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=15650"},"modified":"2025-08-21T08:26:59","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T08:26:59","slug":"cba-ceka-silnejsi-rust-ekonomiky-o-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=15650","title":{"rendered":"\u010cBA \u010dek\u00e1 siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst ekonomiky o 2,1 %"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<div><b>Prognostick\u00fd panel \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace (\u010cBA) sdru\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed hlavn\u00ed ekonomy p\u0159edn\u00edch \u010desk\u00fdch bank o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00ed r\u016fst tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 2,1 %, v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce o 2 %. Progn\u00f3za tak p\u016fsob\u00ed optimisti\u010dt\u011bji ne\u017e kv\u011btnov\u00e1 predikce, kter\u00e1 pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok po\u010d\u00edtala pouze s 1,7 %.<\/b><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong> Zlep\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed navzdory vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm 15% americk\u00fdm cl\u016fm<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla z\u016fstat v platnosti i v roce 2026. Do predikce se sice nad\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b propisuje dopad obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 podle ankety \u010cBA v letech 2025 a 2026 ukousnou z \u010desk\u00e9ho HDP 0,6% bodu, ov\u0161em m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v kv\u011btnov\u00e9m konsensu s -0,8% body.<\/div>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-15651\" src=\"http:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CBA-HDP-prognoza-900x398.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"398\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CBA-HDP-prognoza-900x398.png 900w, https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CBA-HDP-prognoza-1024x453.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CBA-HDP-prognoza-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CBA-HDP-prognoza.png 1063w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--more--><b>Lep\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3za \u010cBA se op\u00edr\u00e1 o: 1) siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled na exportn\u00ed aktivitu podpo\u0159en\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vkou<\/b>, kter\u00e1 napom\u00e1h\u00e1 vyva\u017eovat negativn\u00ed dopady z celn\u00edch v\u00e1lek ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, kdy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rovn\u011b\u017e polev\u00ed efekt siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch export\u016f do USA z d\u016fvodu p\u0159edz\u00e1soben\u00ed v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch kvart\u00e1lech;\u00a0<b>2) lep\u0161\u00ed po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed stav ekonomiky<\/b>\u00a0(v\u010detn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 m\u00edrn\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed revize HDP za druh\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed) doprov\u00e1zen\u00fd i nepatrn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy. A to navzdory m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed predikci leto\u0161n\u00ed 2,5% spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 inflace, kter\u00e1 ov\u0161em v roce 2026 s odhadovan\u00fdm meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstem 2,2 % sm\u011b\u0159uje bl\u00ed\u017ee ke st\u0159edu infla\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n<p><b>Progn\u00f3za \u010cBA proto nad\u00e1le vyhl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed opatrn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB na 3,25 % v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026<\/b>, tak\u00e9 d\u00edky siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed korun\u011b a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazb\u011b ECB a m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice Fedu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdhled na sazbu \u010cNB je o \u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v kv\u011btnov\u00e9 predikci. To spole\u010dn\u011b se stabiln\u00edm v\u00fdhledem na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazbu ECB a na robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed aktivitu vede k o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed koruny v\u016f\u010di euru (24,6 na konci roku 2026). Zv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme-li rozptyl progn\u00f3z r\u016fstu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky a spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen mezi panelisty a jejich pohled na m\u011bnovou politiku \u010cNB, lze konstatovat, \u017ee v\u00fdhled na \u00farokovou sazbu \u010cNB je spojen s rizikem nepatrn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed na 3 % v roce 2026 ne\u017e s jejich stabilitou na 3,5% \u00farovni.<b>Ov\u0161em na druhou stranu progn\u00f3za \u010cBA p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 stabilizaci ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch deficit\u016f lehce nad dv\u011bma procenty HDP, co\u017e bude vy\u017eadovat dodate\u010dn\u00e9 \u00faspory.<\/b>\u00a0P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed uvoln\u011bn\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky po leto\u0161n\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, s t\u00edm spojen\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky kv\u016fli siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu ekonomiky, tak naopak p\u0159edstavuje opa\u010dn\u00e9 riziko pro v\u00fdhled na \u00farokovou sazbu \u010cNB.<\/p>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<div>\n<div>Solidn\u00ed a rezistentn\u00ed r\u016fstov\u00e1 trajektorie \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky vede v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce k \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed jej\u00edho postcovidov\u00e9ho o\u017eiven\u00ed ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. To nav\u00edc v \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice nyn\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1 s ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed inflac\u00ed, ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi \u00faroky a men\u0161\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm deficitem. Progn\u00f3za p\u0159edj\u00edm\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpomalen\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 dynamiky se strukturou odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed slo\u017een\u00ed r\u016fstu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=CdMpCJGDMhU<\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>Zdroj: \u010cBA youtube<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-62\" src=\"https:\/\/www.czechbanking.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/CBA_-logo-cba-zakladni-barva-png-300x105.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.czechbanking.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/CBA_-logo-cba-zakladni-barva-png-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/www.czechbanking.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/CBA_-logo-cba-zakladni-barva-png-768x270.png 768w, https:\/\/www.czechbanking.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/CBA_-logo-cba-zakladni-barva-png.png 831w\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"105\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prognostick\u00fd panel \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace (\u010cBA) sdru\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed hlavn\u00ed ekonomy p\u0159edn\u00edch \u010desk\u00fdch bank o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,62,66],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-banky","category-video"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15650"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15653,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15650\/revisions\/15653"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}