{"id":20015,"date":"2026-03-03T09:22:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T09:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=20015"},"modified":"2026-03-03T09:22:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T09:22:49","slug":"koruna-zatim-valce-na-blizkem-vychode-odolava","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=20015","title":{"rendered":"Koruna (zat\u00edm) v\u00e1lce na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b odol\u00e1v\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Koruna byla v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu jako p\u0159ikovan\u00e1 v \u00fazk\u00e9m p\u00e1smu 24,20-24,25 EUR\/CZK. Tento t\u00fdden mohou rozv\u00ed\u0159it klidn\u00e9 vody koruny nov\u00e1 hork\u00e1 f\u00e1ze v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a data z \u010cR \u2013 zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00fd odhad HDP za 4Q\u201925, \u00fanorov\u00e1 inflace a v\u00fdvoj mezd. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Jejich v\u00fdsledky se prom\u00edtnou na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f ohledn\u011b dal\u0161\u00edho postupu \u010cNB, co\u017e se odraz\u00ed i na dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji koruny.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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V\u00fdvoj EUR\/CZK<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\"V\u00fdvoj<\/p>\n

Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Macrobond<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj USD\/CZK<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"V\u00fdvoj<\/p>\n

Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Macrobond<\/p>\n

\u201eIndex strachu\u201c VIX<\/strong><\/p>\n

\""Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zdroj: Index volatility S&P 500 (VIX), Macrobond<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd byl v\u00fdvoj koruny v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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  • Na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch byl v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu a\u017e p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd klid navzdory tomu, \u017ee Trumpova celn\u00ed politika vyvolala dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu nejistoty. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud USA ozna\u010dil recipro\u010dn\u00ed cla jako nez\u00e1konn\u00e1, na co\u017e Trump uvedl, \u017ee uval\u00ed dle jin\u00e9ho z\u00e1kona 10% glob\u00e1ln\u00ed clo. N\u00e1sledn\u011b na sv\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed str\u00e1nce ohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee clo zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed a\u017e na 15 %. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v \u00fater\u00fd, kdy ve\u0161ly v platnost \u201enov\u00e1 cla\u201c, se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee dle podepsan\u00fdch listin plat\u00ed clo ve v\u00fd\u0161i 10 %<\/strong>. To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 maxim\u00e1ln\u011b po dobu 150 dn\u00ed. Trump ale ji\u017e nazna\u010dil, \u017ee americk\u00e1 administrativa bude hledat nov\u00e9 cesty, jak uplat\u0148ovat hospod\u00e1\u0159skou politiku postavenou na celn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00edch i posl\u00e9ze.<\/li>\n
  • Ma\u010farsk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka <\/strong>obnovila cyklus uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky, kdy\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eila z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu z 6,50 % na 6,25 %. Toto rozhodnut\u00ed bylo ale v souladu s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm trhu (v\u010detn\u011b n\u00e1s), forint tak z\u016fstal v klidu.<\/li>\n
  • Ceny v tuzemsk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b<\/strong> spadly v\u00fdrazn\u011bji, ne\u017e predikoval trh. Nav\u00edc i ceny v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed <\/strong>poklesly, co\u017e bude p\u016fsobit protiinfla\u010dn\u011b v dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. Spekulace o p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m dodate\u010dn\u00e9m uvoln\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky \u010cNB tak pokra\u010duj\u00ed, koruna proto lehce oslabila k 24,24 EUR\/CZK.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Co \u010dek\u00e1 korunu v tomto t\u00fddnu?<\/h2>\n
      \n
    • \u00datok USA a Izraele na \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/strong> se nejsp\u00ed\u0161e projev\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilit\u011b na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch a tak\u00e9 na rostouc\u00ed averzi k riziku. Takov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed obvykle nesv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fdm m\u011bn\u00e1m. Koruna ale zat\u00edm odol\u00e1v\u00e1, naopak forint oslabuje. Z pohledu \u010cNB se jedn\u00e1 o vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok (r\u016fst cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot), na kter\u00fd by bankovn\u00ed rada nem\u011bla reagovat, pokud by se neza\u010daly projevovat sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed efekty do cen zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb.<\/li>\n
    • Velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00fd t\u00fdden m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika. Z\u00edtra bude publikov\u00e1n zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00fd odhad HDP za 4Q\u201925<\/strong>, kde se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 potvrzen\u00ed \u00favodn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f (0,5 % \u010d\/\u010d, 2,4 % r\/r). P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 revize sm\u011brem v\u00fd\u0161e \u010di vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e predikovan\u00e1 spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed by mohla korun\u011b dodat v\u00edtr do plachet, proto\u017ee by to nazna\u010dovalo opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postup od \u010cNB.<\/li>\n
    • Inflace v euroz\u00f3n\u011b <\/strong>by meziro\u010dn\u011b m\u011bla z\u016fstat pod 2 % a j\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace setrvat na 2,2 %. Dopad na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch by v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b byl margin\u00e1ln\u00ed. Rovn\u011b\u017e ve st\u0159edu publikovan\u00e1 inflace v \u010cR<\/strong> by m\u011bla setrvat pod 2% c\u00edlem \u010cNB. My o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me jej\u00ed m\u00edrn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed z 1,6 % na 1,7 %, ale v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edho poklesu inflace by s\u00e1zky na uvoln\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky mohly zes\u00edlit. Koruna by n\u00e1sledn\u011b mohla zam\u00ed\u0159it bl\u00ed\u017ee k 24,30 EUR\/CZK.<\/li>\n
    • Polsk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka <\/strong>nejsp\u00ed\u0161e obnov\u00ed cyklus sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (ze 4 % na 3,75 %), \u00farokov\u00fd diferenci\u00e1l v\u016f\u010di \u010desk\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m by se tak zmen\u0161il, z \u010deho\u017e by koruna mohla na \u00fakor polsk\u00e9ho zlot\u00e9ho profitovat.<\/li>\n
    • V p\u00e1tek doraz\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd \u00fadaj o v\u00fdvoji tuzemsk\u00fdch mezd ve 4Q\u201925<\/strong>, kde podle n\u00e1s z\u016fstala dynamika na podobn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako po cel\u00fd lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok (nomin\u00e1ln\u011b okolo 7 %). Takov\u00fd \u010di dokonce je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst by byl podp\u016frn\u00fdm faktorem pro korunu, proto\u017ee by se sn\u00ed\u017eil prostor pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb \u010cNB.<\/li>\n
    • Koruna m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bna i v\u00fdvojem kurzu EUR\/USD, kter\u00fd krom\u011b geopolitiky bude \u010dekat zejm\u00e9na na p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed data z americk\u00e9ho trhu pr\u00e1ce.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Koruna byla v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu jako p\u0159ikovan\u00e1 v \u00fazk\u00e9m p\u00e1smu 24,20-24,25 EUR\/CZK. Tento t\u00fdden mohou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,44,45,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-export","category-finance","category-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20015"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20015\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20028,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20015\/revisions\/20028"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}