{"id":20161,"date":"2026-03-09T15:39:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:39:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=20161"},"modified":"2026-03-09T15:39:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:39:46","slug":"koruna-hledi-s-obavami-na-blizky-vychod","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=20161","title":{"rendered":"Koruna hled\u00ed s obavami na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wysiwyg perex letters-extra-large\">\n<div>\n<p><strong>Geopolitick\u00e1 situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se stala st\u0159edobodem finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a p\u0159edstavuje aktu\u00e1ln\u011b hlavn\u00ed riziko pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku. Vzpom\u00ednky na energetickou krizi z roku 2022 se vracej\u00ed, averze v\u016f\u010di riziku roste a takov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed nehraje korun\u011b do karet. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tuzemsk\u00e1 m\u011bna sice state\u010dn\u011b bojuje a zat\u00edm \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bji ne\u017e dal\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bny (PLN, HUF). Nicm\u00e9n\u011b rizika p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed a o jej\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dnech a t\u00fddnech rozhodne d\u00e9lka a intenzita v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"wysiwyg body\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"row justify-content-center\">\n<div class=\"col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4 col-xs-12\">\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong>V\u00fdvoj EUR\/CZK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyzy.rb.cz\/pictures\/7-dni\/20260903-7dni\/20260903-7dni-1.png\" alt=\"V\u00fdvoj EUR\/CZK\" data-to-base64=\"false\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\">Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Macrobond<\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong>V\u00fdvoj USD\/CZK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyzy.rb.cz\/pictures\/7-dni\/20260903-7dni\/20260903-7dni-2.png\" alt=\"V\u00fdvoj USD\/CZK\" data-to-base64=\"false\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\">Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Macrobond<\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong>&#8222;Index strachu&#8220; VIX<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyzy.rb.cz\/pictures\/7-dni\/20260903-7dni\/20260903-7dni-3.png\" alt=\"&quot;Index strachu&quot; VIX\" data-to-base64=\"false\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\">Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Macrobond<\/p>\n<p class=\"wysiwyg-classic\"><strong>Jak\u00fd byl v\u00fdvoj koruny v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-lg-6 col-md-6 col-sm-6 col-xs-12\">\n<ul class=\"style2\">\n<li>V\u00fdvoji na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu dominovala <strong>pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/strong>. Riziko d\u00e9le trvaj\u00edc\u00edho konfliktu s negativn\u00edmi d\u016fsledky pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku nav\u00edc stouplo, kdy\u017e Donald Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee po\u017eaduje bezpodm\u00edne\u010dnou kapitulaci \u00cdr\u00e1nu a v\u00e1lka se m\u016f\u017ee prot\u00e1hnout. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se chce pod\u00edlet na v\u00fdb\u011bru jeho nov\u00e9ho v\u016fdce. \u00cdr\u00e1n toto ale explicitn\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1 a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dohoda je zat\u00edm na hony vzd\u00e1lena. Averze v\u016f\u010di riziku d\u00e1le roste, cena ropy Brent ji\u017e p\u0159ekonala \u00farove\u0148 107 USD\/barel a cena zemn\u00edho plynu kr\u00e1tce vzrostla nad hranici 65 EUR\/MWh (nyn\u00ed okolo 53 EUR\/MWh, ale st\u00e1le v\u00edce ne\u017e 60% n\u00e1r\u016fst).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strach z n\u00e1vratu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace<\/strong> se projevuje na rychle rostouc\u00edch v\u00fdnosech dluhopis\u016f v USA, euroz\u00f3n\u011b i \u010cesku. Rovn\u011b\u017e tuzemsk\u00e9 FRA sazby se vydaly vzh\u016fru a tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro swapy, kter\u00e9 indikuj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vanou uta\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnovou politiku v dal\u0161\u00edch t\u00fddnech a m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. V pond\u011bl\u00ed koruna je\u0161t\u011b odol\u00e1vala, ale pot\u00e9 za\u010dala oslabovat v\u016f\u010di euru ke 24,40 EUR\/CZK a v\u016f\u010di dolaru p\u0159es \u00farove\u0148 21 USD\/CZK, a to i p\u0159es zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst tr\u017en\u00edch sazeb. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b koruna ztr\u00e1cela m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e HUF \u010di PLN, kter\u00e9mu nepomohlo ani sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany Polsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky. Naopak z t\u00e9to situace t\u011b\u017e\u00ed <strong>americk\u00fd dolar<\/strong>, kter\u00fd <strong>tentokr\u00e1t potvrdil svou roli bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu<\/strong> a pos\u00edlil kr\u00e1tce pod hranici 1,16 EUR\/USD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Co \u010dek\u00e1 korunu v tomto t\u00fddnu?<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"style2\">\n<li>Rovn\u011b\u017e v tomto t\u00fddnu se nejsp\u00ed\u0161e dostanou <strong>ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje na vedlej\u0161\u00ed kolej<\/strong>, p\u0159esto\u017ee zejm\u00e9na v USA budou publikov\u00e1na velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 data. Ve st\u0159edu to bude CPI inflace, v p\u00e1tek PCE inflace, zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00fd odhad HDP za 4Q\u201925 a dal\u0161\u00ed. Reakce na p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed \u00fadaje z americk\u00e9ho trhu pr\u00e1ce v\u0161ak dala jasn\u011b najevo, \u010demu se nyn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy v\u011bnuj\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>Pozornost se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na <strong>dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/strong>, kde Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u011b s Izraelem prov\u00e1d\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 akce nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Ten na opl\u00e1tku ost\u0159eluje jejich pozice, a to i na \u00fazem\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd dopravn\u00ed uzel sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s komoditami, funguje ve velmi omezen\u00e9m re\u017eimu.<\/li>\n<li>Co se t\u00fdk\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje, v na\u0161em <strong>z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i<\/strong> o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me kr\u00e1tkodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konflikt (cca 1 m\u011bs\u00edc) bez v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed eskalace, kdy by se cena ropy mohla pohybovat okolo 85 USD\/barel. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by koruna mohla d\u00e1le oslabovat, ale n\u00e1sledn\u011b by se mohla vr\u00e1tit k p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu pozitivn\u00edmu trendu. Riziko <strong>alternativn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/strong>, kter\u00fd jsme definovali jako del\u0161\u00ed konflikt v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho \u00fapln\u00e9ho uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, v\u0161ak roste a cena ropy by se mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it a\u017e do p\u00e1sma 100-150 USD\/barel a pohybovat se na t\u00e9to \u00farovni po dobu t\u0159\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Investo\u0159i by je\u0161t\u011b ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e p\u0159esouvali sv\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky do bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch aktiv, typicky americk\u00e9ho dolaru. Naopak euro je v\u00fdrazn\u011b zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na energetick\u00e9 \u0161oky, jak uk\u00e1zal rok 2022. Rovn\u011b\u017e koruna by se mo\u017en\u00e1 dostala pod prodejn\u00ed tlak, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i by tak nejsp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm slovn\u011b vyrazili tuzemsk\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b na pomoc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Geopolitick\u00e1 situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se stala st\u0159edobodem finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a p\u0159edstavuje aktu\u00e1ln\u011b hlavn\u00ed riziko&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,44,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-export","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20161"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20163,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20161\/revisions\/20163"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}