{"id":2140,"date":"2024-02-13T19:03:16","date_gmt":"2024-02-13T19:03:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=2140"},"modified":"2024-02-13T19:03:16","modified_gmt":"2024-02-13T19:03:16","slug":"automotive-sektor-strasi-hubene-zisky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=2140","title":{"rendered":"Automotive sektor stra\u0161\u00ed huben\u00e9 zisky"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ve sv\u011btov\u00e9m automotive klesla d\u016fv\u011bra v r\u016fst ziskovosti, p\u0159esto\u017ee automobilky doufaj\u00ed v\u00a0mo\u017enost zdra\u017een\u00ed a\u017e o desetinu. Oslabil tak\u00e9 optimismus ohledn\u011b schopnosti udr\u017eet krok s rozvojem AI a ohledn\u011b rychlosti dosa\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 parity mezi elektroauty a spalovac\u00edmi vozy. <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 pos\u00edlilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed o neohro\u017eenosti prvenstv\u00ed Tesly na trhu s\u00a0elektromobily i autonomn\u00edmi vozy. Z\u00e1kaznick\u00e1 zku\u0161enost se stala druh\u00fdm nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i n\u00e1kupu. Vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 to z 24. ro\u010dn\u00edku pr\u016fzkumu GAES od KPMG, kter\u00e1 vyzpov\u00eddala 1 041 mana\u017eer\u016f autopr\u016fmyslu p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edch ve 28 zem\u00edch v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska.<\/p>\n

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed GAES (Global Automotive Executive Survey) porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 sentiment v roce 2023 oproti roku 2022. Obecn\u011b v sektoru p\u0159ibyly chmury \u2013 m\u00e9n\u011b mana\u017eer\u016f m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee autopr\u016fmysl dos\u00e1hne v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti letech v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ziskovosti. D\u016fvodem jsou p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obavy ze zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch se n\u00e1klad\u016f, men\u0161\u00edch prodej\u016f, zost\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed konkurence a nejist\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bra v r\u016fst ziskovosti klesla ve v\u0161ech sledovan\u00fdch regionech vyjma \u010c\u00edny, kde stoupla z 28 na 36 procent. V z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b se ale pod\u00edl respondent\u016f s extr\u00e9mn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011brou sn\u00ed\u017eil z 31 na 24 procent a v USA ze 48 na 43 procent. V Japonsku spadl dokonce z 32 na 10 procent.<\/p>\n

\u201eSkepse ohledn\u011b r\u016fstu ziskovosti pramen\u00ed hlavn\u011b z nejist\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek elektromobility. Na tu autopr\u016fmysl hodn\u011b vsadil, ale n\u00e1vratnost t\u011bchto investic bude asi pomalej\u0161\u00ed. Tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee na trh p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed \u010detn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 modely elektroaut, jen\u017ee sou\u010dasn\u011b oslabila popt\u00e1vka, tak\u017ee se zost\u0159uje konkurence, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy dostat pod zna\u010dn\u00fd tlak,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0vysv\u011btlil automobilov\u00fd expert \u010desk\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e KPMG Jan Linhart.<\/p>\n

Konkurence brzd\u00ed zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Automobilky doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee i letos dok\u00e1\u017eou zv\u00fd\u0161it ceny voz\u016f. Dv\u011b t\u0159etiny v\u00fdrobc\u016f p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst cen o p\u011bt a\u017e deset procent. Auto\u0159i pr\u016fzkumu ale upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto zdra\u017een\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, hlavn\u011b kv\u016fli intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konkurenci a oslabuj\u00edc\u00ed inflaci.<\/p>\n

\u201eUvid\u00edme, jestli p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zas\u00e1hne i nejdynami\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed segment elektroaut, kde se naopak hodn\u011b vol\u00e1 po levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch modelech pro masovou ve\u0159ejnost. V\u00fdrobc\u016fm ale objektivn\u011b vzrostly n\u00e1klady a z\u00e1rove\u0148 mus\u00ed generovat v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zisky, aby m\u011bly na nutn\u00e9 masivn\u00ed investice,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0uvedl Linhart.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Odhady prodej\u016f elektroaut se sbl\u00ed\u017eily \u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

V aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm GAES se zmen\u0161il rozd\u00edl mezi nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm odhadem pod\u00edlu elektroaut na celosv\u011btov\u00fdch prodej\u00edch nov\u00fdch voz\u016f v roce 2030. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd odhad se z\u00e1rove\u0148 o trochu zv\u00fd\u0161il.<\/p>\n

V minul\u00e9m GAES respondenti v pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159edpov\u00eddali, \u017ee za \u0161est let budou v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b elektroauta tvo\u0159it 24 procent prodej\u016f. Nyn\u00ed tento odhad posko\u010dil na 30 procent. \u201eHlavn\u00edm tahounem r\u016fstu prodej\u016f elektroaut budou nad\u00e1le regulace a dotace. Evropa ale za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sv\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u011b velmi ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat realit\u011b. I tak se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b je 30 procent sp\u00ed\u0161e konzervativn\u00ed odhad a skute\u010dn\u00fd pod\u00edl na prodej\u00edch nov\u00fdch voz\u016f bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee \u0159ada v\u00fdrobc\u016f pozastavila nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ibrzdila investice do v\u00fdvoje aut se spalovac\u00edmi motory. To se b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let za\u010dne projevovat na jejich nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 nab\u00eddce. Vznikl\u00fd prostor mohou vyplnit levn\u00e1 elektroauta z\u00a0\u010c\u00edny,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0upozornil Linhart.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zhor\u0161il v\u00fdsledek dotazov\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b doby, kdy lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u00e1kladovou paritu mezi elektroauty a vozy se spalovac\u00edmi motory. V minul\u00e9m pr\u016fzkumu uvedlo 72 procent respondent\u016f, \u017ee bez dotac\u00ed bude parity dosa\u017eeno nejpozd\u011bji v roce 2030. Nyn\u00ed se stejn\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo jen 62 procent.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Teslu z\u00a0tr\u016fnu nesesad\u00ed Evropan\u00e9 ani \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00edce nejen evropsk\u00fdch mana\u017eer\u016f m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e1 Tesla z\u016fstane s p\u0159ehledem jedni\u010dkou na trhu s\u00a0elektromobily v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm d\u00edky rozvoji v\u00fdroby v\u00a0berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rn\u011b. Paraleln\u011b s t\u00edm oslabila v\u00edra v mo\u017enou budouc\u00ed dominanci n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zna\u010dek BMW a Audi, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed b\u00fdt s velk\u00fdm odstupem druh\u00fdm a t\u0159et\u00edm nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm hr\u00e1\u010dem. Drav\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 firm\u011b BYD se p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 a\u017e \u0161est\u00e9 m\u00edsto. Na \u010dtvrtou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dku se dostal Apple, o jeho\u017e vstupu na trh elektroaut se u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu spekuluje.<\/p>\n

Tesla bude podle v\u011bt\u0161iny respondent\u016f i nezpochybniteln\u00fdm l\u00eddrem na trhu s autonomn\u00edmi vozy. Se samo\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi auty, hlavn\u011b v\u00a0podob\u011b tzv. robotaxi, se u\u017e experimentuje v\u00a0USA, \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u010di Singapuru.<\/p>\n

Dv\u011b t\u0159etiny osloven\u00fdch p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee nejen Apple, ale i Google m\u016f\u017ee brzy p\u0159edstavit n\u011bjak\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed vozy. Jako jin\u00fdm nov\u00e1\u010dk\u016fm v autopr\u016fmyslu se mu nab\u00edz\u00ed cesta smluvn\u00ed v\u00fdroby. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by v\u00fdrobu sv\u011b\u0159il t\u0159et\u00ed stran\u011b a soust\u0159edil se na v\u00fdvoj a softwarov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, na kter\u00e9m jsou technologi\u010dt\u00ed giganti schopni postavit ziskov\u00fd obchodn\u00ed model.<\/p>\n

Automotive nevyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 sout\u011b\u017e o talenty na AI <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mana\u017ee\u0159i projevuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strach ohledn\u011b schopnosti autopr\u016fmyslu udr\u017eet krok s rapidn\u00edm rozvojem nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch technologi\u00ed, jak\u00fdmi jsou um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, strojov\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed, sofistikovan\u00e1 robotika \u010di digit\u00e1ln\u00ed dvoj\u010data. Pouze 40 procent respondent\u016f uvedlo, \u017ee se c\u00edt\u00ed velmi nebo extr\u00e9mn\u011b dob\u0159e p\u0159ipraveno na nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed technologie. V minul\u00e9m pr\u016fzkumu to bylo 63 procent.<\/p>\n

\u201eTechnologie se zdokonaluj\u00ed st\u00e1le rychleji, jen\u017ee autopr\u016fmysl pat\u0159\u00ed mezi sektory s\u00a0velkou setrva\u010dnost\u00ed a n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 na pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu. Automobilky i jejich dodavatel\u00e9 tedy budou muset vy\u0161kolit na AI hodn\u011b zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. Tento handicap se bude p\u0159ekon\u00e1vat jen obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b, proto \u0159ada automobilek bude zva\u017eovat aliance s\u00a0technologick\u00fdmi firmami. Znamen\u00e1 to ale nutnost rozd\u011blit se s\u00a0nimi o \u010d\u00e1st zisku,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0shrnul Linhart.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i n\u00e1kupu rozhodne v\u00fdkon a z\u00e1kaznick\u00e1 zku\u0161enost<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm krit\u00e9riem p\u0159i n\u00e1kupu auta z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 j\u00edzdn\u00ed v\u00fdkon. Na druh\u00e9 m\u00edsto se posunula z\u00e1kaznick\u00e1 zku\u0161enost, kter\u00e1 vyst\u0159\u00eddala zna\u010dku a image vozu. Z\u00e1kaznickou zku\u0161enost mohou podle GAES nejv\u00edc zhor\u0161it probl\u00e9my se softwarem aut. Potenci\u00e1ln\u011b slab\u00fdm m\u00edstem je i kybernetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost, tedy ochrana \u00fadaj\u016f u voz\u016f s\u00a0konektivitou. \u00danik dat loni postihl Toyotu.<\/p>\n

\u201eRostouc\u00ed v\u00fdznam p\u0159isuzuj\u00ed z\u00e1kaznick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti zejm\u00e9na deale\u0159i a to celosv\u011btov\u011b. Pe\u010dovat o z\u00e1kaznickou zku\u0161enost ale mus\u00ed v\u0161ichni hr\u00e1\u010di na trhu. Tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee hledaj\u00ed nov\u00e9 zdroje p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, mimo jin\u00e9 v p\u0159edplatn\u00e9m softwarov\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed pro \u0159idi\u010de. D\u016fv\u011bra mana\u017eer\u016f v ochotu spot\u0159ebitel\u016f utr\u00e1cet za p\u0159edplatn\u00e9 ale klesla,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0poznamenal odborn\u00edk KPMG na z\u00e1kaznickou zku\u0161enost Luk\u00e1\u0161 Cingr.<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jistotu \u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mimo \u010c\u00ednu p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 obavy o dostupnost mnoha komodit a d\u00edl\u016f. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovina ne\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch respondent\u016f je velmi nebo extr\u00e9mn\u011b znepokojena komplikovanost\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu k polovodi\u010d\u016fm, ale i lithiu, kobaltu a dal\u0161\u00edm surovin\u00e1m pot\u0159ebn\u00fdm pro baterie elektroaut.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum potvrdil posun v \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, kde model \u201ejust-in-case\u201c (JIC) za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159eva\u017eovat nad modelem \u201ejust-in-time\u201c (JIT), resp. \u201ejust-in-sequence\u201c (JIS). \u201eJIC sm\u011b\u0159uje k hromad\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob, i za cenu vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f za skladov\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u00fdhodou je v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odolnost pro p\u0159\u00edpad v\u00fdpadk\u016f dod\u00e1vek. JIS zd\u016fraz\u0148uje efektivitu, tak\u017ee usiluje o co nejv\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159esn\u011b odm\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 a na\u010dasovan\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy. Slabinou je men\u0161\u00ed jistota byznys kontinuity. JIC p\u0159eje diverzifikaci dodavatel\u016f a\/nebo dopravn\u00edch cest, proto\u017ee nehled\u00e1 tolik jen nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010di nejrychlej\u0161\u00ed kan\u00e1l, ale v\u00edce r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 dohromady posiluj\u00ed spolehlivost dod\u00e1vek,\u201c<\/i><\/em>\u00a0uzav\u0159el logistick\u00fd expert KPMG Ladislav Rulf.<\/p>\n

O pr\u016fzkumu<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sb\u011br dat prob\u011bhl v \u0159\u00edjnu 2023 mezi 1 041 vedouc\u00edmi pracovn\u00edky autopr\u016fmyslu a nav\u00e1zan\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed. Dotazovan\u00ed p\u016fsob\u00ed v automobilk\u00e1ch, dodavatelsk\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch, dealerstv\u00edch, poskytovatel\u00edch dob\u00edje\u010dek, ale i v technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnostech \u010di finan\u010dn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s automotive. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dtvrtinu respondent\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel\u00e9 a dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dtvrtinu jin\u00ed topmana\u017ee\u0159i. Skoro t\u0159etina (323) osloven\u00fdch pracuje ve spole\u010dnostech s ro\u010dn\u00edm obratem nejm\u00e9n\u011b jedn\u00e9 miliardy USD.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum se uskute\u010dnil ve 28 zem\u00edch ze v\u0161ech kontinent\u016f. Nejv\u00edc respondent\u016f \u017eije v USA (277), \u010c\u00edn\u011b (154) a N\u011bmecku (80). V \u010cesku se \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed z\u00fa\u010dastnilo sedm osob.<\/p>\n

Zdroj: KPMG, Luk\u00e1\u0161 Kantor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ve sv\u011btov\u00e9m automotive klesla d\u016fv\u011bra v r\u016fst ziskovosti, p\u0159esto\u017ee automobilky doufaj\u00ed v\u00a0mo\u017enost zdra\u017een\u00ed a\u017e o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2140"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2142,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140\/revisions\/2142"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/91"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}