{"id":21489,"date":"2026-05-06T14:39:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T14:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=21489"},"modified":"2026-05-06T14:42:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T14:42:21","slug":"zbrojarska-csg-je-na-burze-pod-palbou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=21489","title":{"rendered":"Zbroja\u0159sk\u00e1 CSG je na burze pod palbou"},"content":{"rendered":"

Akcie Czechoslovak Group, majitele Tatry Truck, se propadly od ledna p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 50 procent. Nejnov\u011bji minul\u00fd t\u00fdden po kritick\u00e9m reportu, kter\u00fd zpochybnil, zda m\u011bli investo\u0159i k dispozici v\u0161echny informace p\u0159ed vstupem firmy na burzu. Co stoj\u00ed za p\u00e1dem zbroja\u0159sk\u00e9ho obra? Situaci zanalyzoval Broker Trust.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u017de Czechoslovak Group vstupuje na burzu, v\u011bd\u011bli i lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se o investice b\u011b\u017en\u011b nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh \u010desk\u00e9 firmy, kter\u00e1 dob\u00fdv\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed trhy, veze se na vln\u011b evropsk\u00e9ho p\u0159ezbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed a st\u00e1v\u00e1 se mil\u00e1\u010dkem investor\u016f, byl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neodolateln\u00fd. N\u011bco jako nov\u00fd Rheinmetall za \u010desk\u00e9 pen\u00edze. CSG bylo v\u0161ude plno a s jej\u00edmi akciemi se v lednu za\u010dalo obchodovat za mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu investor\u016f i m\u00e9di\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Byl to historicky nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vstup zbroja\u0159sk\u00e9 firmy na burzu. V prim\u00e1rn\u00edm \u00fapisu se akcie prod\u00e1valy za 25 eur za kus, tedy zhruba za 600 korun, a nedostalo se ani na \u010d\u00e1st velk\u00fdch fond\u016f, nato\u017e na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 investory. Hlad byl obrovsk\u00fd. Kdy\u017e se pak s akciemi za\u010dalo obchodovat na burze v Amsterdamu a v Praze, cena z\u00e1hy vystoupala a\u017e ke 33 eur\u016fm, tedy p\u0159es 800 korun za akcii.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tam le\u017e\u00ed zat\u00edm nepr\u016fst\u0159eln\u00fd strop. Od t\u00e9 doby kurz s\u00a0v\u00fdkyvy kles\u00e1. Hore\u010dka kolem zbroja\u0159sk\u00fdch akci\u00ed vychladla a CSG v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch schytala n\u011bkolik z\u00e1sah\u016f. Naposledy po reportu spole\u010dnosti Hunterbrook Media, kter\u00fd zpochybnil, zda m\u011bli investo\u0159i p\u0159ed vstupem na burzu k dispozici dostate\u010dn\u011b jasn\u00e9 informace. Nutno dodat, \u017ee Hunterbrook Media p\u0159ed t\u00edm vsadila na pokles akci\u00ed CSG, kter\u00e1 se proti textu ost\u0159e ohradila. Pro \u010d\u00e1st trhu to byl dal\u0161\u00ed st\u0159\u00edpek, kter\u00fd zapadl do nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 skl\u00e1da\u010dky. Co ji tvo\u0159\u00ed?<\/p>\n

P\u0159ep\u00e1len\u00e9 IPO<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Za ta l\u00e9ta na burze jsem pochopil, \u017ee zkratka IPO nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b znamenat jen Initial Public Offering<\/i><\/em>\u00a0(prvn\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 nab\u00eddka akci\u00ed), ale velice \u010dasto tak\u00e9 Initially Probably Overpriced<\/i><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 tedy v p\u0159ekladu zpo\u010d\u00e1tku pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159edra\u017een\u00e9<\/i><\/em>. Nebo \u010desky: investo\u0159i plat\u00ed optimismus.<\/p>\n

Proto se v 95 procentech p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f dr\u017e\u00edm od n\u00e1kup\u016f v IPO stranou. A to zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee si o t\u00e9 nab\u00eddce akci\u00ed u\u017e pov\u00eddaj\u00ed i postar\u0161\u00ed d\u00e1my na lavi\u010dce p\u0159ed domovem senior\u016f. Ne proto, \u017ee by \u0161lo automaticky o \u0161patnou firmu, ale proto\u017ee dobr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh b\u00fdv\u00e1 v takov\u00e9 chv\u00edli u\u017e velmi \u010dasto zapo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd v cen\u011b.<\/p>\n

Mnohdy se stane, \u017ee akcie po IPO ud\u011blaj\u00ed vlnku, p\u0159i kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee \u010dlov\u011bk nasko\u010dit za mnohem p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cenu. A p\u0159esn\u011b to se stalo u akci\u00ed CSG. Cena \u00fapisu byla evidentn\u011b nastavena v\u00fd\u0161e, ne\u017e byl trh po p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ochoten akceptovat. Kdy\u017e k tomu p\u0159ipo\u010dteme raketov\u00fd r\u016fst, kter\u00fd v prvn\u00edch dnech po IPO n\u00e1sledoval, nen\u00ed pokles o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 pades\u00e1t procent \u017e\u00e1dnou z\u00e1hadou.<\/p>\n

U IPO \u010dlov\u011bk \u010dasto neplat\u00ed za sou\u010dasnou hodnotu firmy, ale za budoucnost v t\u00e9 nejhez\u010d\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 verzi. A kdy\u017e se tahle verze za\u010dne drolit, cena um\u00ed spadnout velmi rychle.<\/p>\n

Po\u0161ramocen\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bra investor\u016f<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b CSG se postupn\u011b se\u0161lo hned n\u011bkolik nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fdch t\u00e9mat. V m\u00e9di\u00edch se objevila zpr\u00e1va, \u017ee \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e1 dce\u0159in\u00e1 firma m\u011bla narazit u n\u00e1kupn\u00ed agentury NATO a do\u010dasn\u011b se ocitnout mimo seznam dodavatel\u016f, od kter\u00fdch m\u016f\u017ee agentura nakupovat. Do toho se p\u0159idal spor kolem pr\u00e1va jednoho z minoritn\u00edch akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f prodat sv\u016fj pod\u00edl zp\u011bt skupin\u011b a nejnov\u011bji tak\u00e9 report spole\u010dnosti Hunterbrook, kter\u00fd vedle obchodn\u00edho modelu a v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit zpochybnil i kvalitu podklad\u016f, s nimi\u017e firma p\u0159i\u0161la na burzu. CSG se proti kritice br\u00e1n\u00ed a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jde o nep\u0159esnosti a zkreslen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pro akcie je ale probl\u00e9m u\u017e samotn\u00e1 pochybnost. Burza je v tomhle ne\u00faprosn\u00e1: jakmile se u nov\u00e9 emise za\u010dne \u0159e\u0161it, jestli investo\u0159i p\u0159ed IPO dostali \u00fapln\u00fd a f\u00e9rov\u00fd obr\u00e1zek, p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed sleva za nejistotu kolem \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, transparentnosti a d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti firmy. Nemus\u00ed to znamenat, \u017ee se v\u0161echna obvin\u011bn\u00ed potvrd\u00ed. Znamen\u00e1 to ale, \u017ee investor najednou nechce platit stejn\u00fd n\u00e1sobek zisk\u016f jako ve chv\u00edli, kdy p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh vypadal bez kazu.<\/p>\n

Zbroja\u0159sk\u00e1 euforie ochladla <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed to jen o CSG. Pohled na cel\u00fd zbroja\u0159sk\u00fd (aerospace and defence) sektor \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee zbroja\u0159sk\u00e9 akcie proch\u00e1zej\u00ed od po\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna rozs\u00e1hlou korekc\u00ed sv\u00fdch p\u0159edchoz\u00edch nemal\u00fdch zisk\u016f. Sektorov\u00e9 ETF odepsalo za b\u0159ezen a duben ze sv\u00e9 hodnoty patn\u00e1ct procent a ztr\u00e1ty u jednotliv\u00fdch zbroja\u0159sk\u00fdch titul\u016f z americk\u00e9 burzy mohly b\u00fdt i v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Lockheed Martin odepsaly v\u00edce ne\u017e 25 procent a jsou i dal\u0161\u00ed firmy s v\u00edce ne\u017e dvacetiprocentn\u00edm poklesem. To, \u017ee CSG tyto poklesy je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ekonala, je d\u00e1no p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi dv\u011bma d\u016fvody.<\/p>\n

Je \u010das na n\u00e1kup?<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdybych to v\u011bd\u011bl, s\u00e1hnu hodn\u011b hluboko do pen\u011b\u017eenky. Jen\u017ee na burze nikdo nev\u00ed nic jist\u011b a z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i neexistuj\u00ed. Kdo chce z\u00e1zraky, a\u0165 jde do Disneylandu, ne na akciov\u00fd trh.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 cena u\u017e ale d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed smysl ne\u017e \u00farovn\u011b, o kter\u00e9 se investo\u0159i prali kr\u00e1tce po IPO. Probl\u00e9mem CSG dnes nen\u00ed samotn\u00fd byznys, ten podle v\u00fdhledu firmy d\u00e1l vypad\u00e1 siln\u011b. Pro velk\u00e9 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed investory je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed hlavn\u011b ztr\u00e1ta d\u016fv\u011bry spojen\u00e1 s ot\u00e1zkami kolem prospektu, transparentnosti a pr\u00e1vn\u00edch \u010di reputa\u010dn\u00edch rizik. Trh si zkr\u00e1tka \u00fa\u010dtuje slevu za nejistotu.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Foto: Tatra<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

CSG pro rok 2026 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 tr\u017eby 7,4 a\u017e 7,6 miliardy eur a upravenou EBIT mar\u017ei kolem 24 a\u017e 25 procent.<\/strong> To by teoreticky znamenalo upraven\u00fd EBIT n\u011bkde kolem 1,8 miliardy eur. Tak\u017ee ne, po\u0159\u00e1d to nen\u00ed levn\u00e9 jako klasick\u00e1 hodnotov\u00e1 akcie, kterou \u010dlov\u011bk najde zapomenutou v kout\u011b burzy. Ale na rychle rostouc\u00ed obrann\u00fd holding u\u017e sou\u010dasn\u00e1 cena nep\u016fsob\u00ed absurdn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pokud by firma skute\u010dn\u011b n\u011bkolik let rostla dvojcifern\u00fdm tempem, udr\u017eela vysok\u00e9 mar\u017ee a postupn\u011b obnovila d\u016fv\u011bru investor\u016f, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt sou\u010dasn\u00e1 cena pro dlouhodob\u00e9ho r\u016fstov\u00e9ho investora zaj\u00edmav\u00e1. P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm pro postupn\u00e9 budov\u00e1n\u00ed pozice. Rozhodn\u011b ale ne pro n\u00e1kup \u201eza v\u0161echno\u201c.<\/p>\n

Kdo nechce nakupovat konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed akcie, m\u016f\u017ee uva\u017eovat i o za\u0159azen\u00ed obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu do portfolia formou n\u011bkter\u00e9ho ze sektorov\u00fdch\u00a0fond\u016f, pokud to zapad\u00e1 do jeho strategie.<\/p>\n

U CSG dnes nejde jen o ot\u00e1zku, jestli je firma dobr\u00e1. Jde o to, jakou cenu je rozumn\u00e9 zaplatit za firmu, u kter\u00e9 se velmi brzy po IPO za\u010daly objevovat pochybnosti. A to je p\u0159esn\u011b ten typ situace, kde se na burze vypl\u00e1c\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b nad\u0161en\u00ed a v\u00edce trp\u011blivosti.<\/p>\n

V\u00e1clav Pech, investi\u010dn\u00ed analytik, Broker Trust<\/i><\/b><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Akcie Czechoslovak Group, majitele Tatry Truck, se propadly od ledna p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 50 procent. Nejnov\u011bji…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,42,98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie","category-analyza","category-burza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21489"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21489\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21491,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21489\/revisions\/21491"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}