{"id":7648,"date":"2024-10-03T09:50:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:50:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=7648"},"modified":"2024-10-03T09:50:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:50:56","slug":"xtb-jak-reaguji-akciove-trhy-na-problemy-automobilek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/?p=7648","title":{"rendered":"XTB: Jak reaguj\u00ed akciov\u00e9 trhy na probl\u00e9my automobilek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl v Evrop\u011b proch\u00e1z\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdm obdob\u00edm, co\u017e dokazuj\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed spole\u010dnost\u00ed Stellantis a Aston Martin. Stellantis, tradi\u010dn\u00ed gigant s bohat\u00fdm portfoliem zna\u010dek, jako jsou Peugeot, Fiat, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, Jeep, Opel, Dodge a dal\u0161\u00ed, spolu s Aston Martin, ozn\u00e1mili 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles budouc\u00edch zisk\u016f. P\u0159ipojil se tak k dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010d\u016fm, jako jsou Volkswagen, BMW a Mercedes-Benz, kte\u0159\u00ed sv\u00e9 v\u00fdhledy na konec roku sn\u00ed\u017eili ji\u017e podruh\u00e9 za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnost Stellantis moment\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 negativn\u00ed cash flow a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed provozn\u00edch mar\u017e\u00ed na 5,5 a\u017e 7,0 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u016fvodn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vala dvoucifern\u00e9 hodnoty. Podobn\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee hl\u00e1s\u00ed i Aston Martin, kter\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 z\u00e1porn\u00e9 cash-flow a pokles hrub\u00e9 mar\u017ee pod 40 %. Reakce trhu na tyto zpr\u00e1vy byla okam\u017eit\u00e1, akcie Stellantisu klesly o v\u00edce ne\u017e 10 %, zat\u00edmco akcie Aston Martin se propadly a\u017e o 25 %.<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d tato varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed a co to znamen\u00e1 pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Popt\u00e1vka<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po dvou siln\u00fdch letech (2022 a 2023), kdy byl trh podpo\u0159en nahromad\u011bn\u00fdmi \u00fasporami a velk\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem spot\u0159ebitel\u016f o nov\u00e1 vozidla, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka zpomalovat. Zat\u00edmco prodeje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch automobilov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, jako jsou Toyota a Volkswagen, v t\u011bchto letech rostly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 10 %, v sou\u010dasnosti \u010del\u00edme opa\u010dn\u00e9mu trendu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad spole\u010dnost Stellantis, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 siln\u00e9 zastoupen\u00ed v Severn\u00ed Americe, zaznamenala meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles prodeje o 15 %. Podobn\u011b jsou na tom tak\u00e9 zna\u010dky BMW a Mercedes-Benz, kter\u00e9 kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9mu vystaven\u00ed se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu trhu zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles prodej\u016f o 6 %. Volkswagen a Toyota v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b stagnuj\u00ed a jejich r\u016fst se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed nule. Automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, tradi\u010dn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fd svou cykli\u010dnost\u00ed, tak p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed z f\u00e1ze r\u016fstu do f\u00e1ze vrcholu, po n\u00ed\u017e n\u00e1sleduje pokles.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna, konkurence a slab\u00fd spot\u0159ebitel<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba automobil\u016f dnes ji\u017e nen\u00ed jen o komplexn\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch a komplikovan\u00e9 mont\u00e1\u017ei spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f, ale s p\u0159\u00edchodem elektromobil\u016f se v\u00fdrobn\u00ed procesy postupn\u011b zjednodu\u0161uj\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi sou\u010d\u00e1stmi jsou elektromotor a baterie. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 v\u0161ak ve v\u00fdrob\u011b bateri\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1skok a d\u00edky investic\u00edm a podpo\u0159e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy je dok\u00e1\u017ee vyr\u00e1b\u011bt levn\u011bji a efektivn\u011bji. M\u00e1 po ruce t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec nedostatkov\u00fdch komodit, co\u017e vytvo\u0159ilo ide\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor pro zv\u00fd\u0161enou konkurenci pro evropsk\u00e9 automobilky. \u010c\u00edna je tak nyn\u00ed schopna vyr\u00e1b\u011bt elektromobily za \u010dtvrtinu n\u00e1klad\u016f evropsk\u00fdch automobilek a ji\u017e nyn\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed 15 % evropsk\u00e9ho trhu s elektromobily, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v roce 2019 to bylo 1 %. D\u00edky v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm investic\u00edm nav\u00edc vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ebytky produkce, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledn\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed do cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. Odhaduje se tak, \u017ee do konce roku 2030 bude \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz automobil\u016f p\u0159edstavovat a\u017e t\u0159etinu celkov\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s automobily. To p\u0159edstavuje hrozbu pro evropsk\u00e9 automobilky, kter\u00e9 elektromobily dok\u00e1\u017eou vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a\u017e za \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek n\u00e1klad\u016f.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159echod na elektromobilitu a utopen\u00e9 kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed tlak na automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl p\u0159edstavuje pl\u00e1n Evropsk\u00e9 unie zak\u00e1zat od roku 2035 prodej nov\u00fdch vozidel se spalovac\u00edmi motory. Automobilky se proto mus\u00ed p\u0159eorientovat na hybridn\u00ed vozidla a elektromobily, co\u017e vy\u017eaduje obrovsk\u00e9 investice do v\u00fdvoje a v\u00fdroby. V\u011bt\u0161ina investic do nov\u00fdch tov\u00e1ren, stroj\u016f, v\u00fdzkumu a v\u00fdvoje v\u0161ak zat\u00edm nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed k\u00fd\u017een\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Krom\u011b toho se v\u00fdrobci automobil\u016f v Evrop\u011b pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na energie v d\u016fsledku vysok\u00fdch cen energetick\u00fdch komodit, ale tak\u00e9 s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi mzdov\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 se po masov\u00fdch st\u00e1vk\u00e1ch a vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed odbor\u016f jen zvy\u0161uj\u00ed. Tak\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec pro v\u00fdrobu bateri\u00ed v Evrop\u011b nen\u00ed tak rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd jako nap\u0159\u00edklad v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, co\u017e op\u011bt prodra\u017euje v\u00fdrobu. Kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje tak \u010dasto nesta\u010d\u00ed ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed konkurence a nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed tak investor\u016fm o\u010dek\u00e1vanou n\u00e1vratnost.<\/p>\n

Shrnut\u00ed<\/p>\n

<\/strong>Tyto faktory maj\u00ed negativn\u00ed dopad na cel\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed a jejich \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nebude snadn\u00e9. Jedn\u00edm z prvn\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je ji\u017e na stole, je protekcionismus v podob\u011b cel. Evropsk\u00e1 unie navrhla zav\u00e9st 36,3% cla na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce automobil\u016f, zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e zavedly p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed s cly a\u017e do v\u00fd\u0161e 100 %.<\/p>\n

Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed sice mohou ochr\u00e1nit m\u00edstn\u00ed v\u00fdrobce a poskytnout jim \u010das pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k proveden\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch zm\u011bn, maj\u00ed v\u0161ak i sv\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel by mohlo zpomalit p\u0159echod na elektromobilitu a zhor\u0161it podm\u00ednky pro spot\u0159ebitele, proto\u017ee by se zv\u00fd\u0161ily ceny elektromobil\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by to mohlo prodlou\u017eit obdob\u00ed, b\u011bhem n\u011bho\u017e nebudou evrop\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci automobil\u016f schopni konkurovat \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm v\u00fdrobc\u016fm z hlediska \u00fa\u010dinnosti a n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl se tedy nach\u00e1z\u00ed v kritick\u00e9m bod\u011b a je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt, kdo budou budouc\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9 a pora\u017een\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Marek Nemky XTB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl v Evrop\u011b proch\u00e1z\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdm obdob\u00edm, co\u017e dokazuj\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed spole\u010dnost\u00ed Stellantis a Aston…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-komentar","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7648"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7653,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648\/revisions\/7653"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}