\u010cesk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce b\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b poklesla o 7,8 %, negativn\u00ed je i v\u00fdsledek po o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed vlivy, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le ud\u00e1v\u00e1 re\u00e1ln\u00fd pokles o 5,0 %. <\/b><\/p>\n
V\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zhor\u0161en\u00ed u tuzemsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu je mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat tak\u00e9 na mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed b\u00e1zi, kdy proti \u0159\u00edjnu do\u0161lo k poklesu pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkce o 1,8 %.\u00a0Trh o\u010dek\u00e1val lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek zhruba na \u00farovni mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed stagnace a dne\u0161n\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla tak lze vn\u00edmat jako dal\u0161\u00ed negativn\u00ed p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed po slab\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9m v\u00fdsledku HDP za t\u0159et\u00ed kvart\u00e1l.<\/p>\n
P\u0159i pohledu nameziro\u010dn\u00ed rozklad<\/b>\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f jednotliv\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed jsou zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 t\u0159i informace.\u00a0(i)<\/b>\u00a0Na negativn\u00edm v\u00fdsledku se v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod\u00edlel pokles produkce elekt\u0159iny a plynu (-1,5 procentn\u00edho bodu), mj. z d\u016fvodu teplej\u0161\u00edho po\u010das\u00ed a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch odst\u00e1vek v elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch.\u00a0(ii)\u00a0<\/b>Nad\u00e1le doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu sektor\u016f nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch se v kladn\u00e9m teritoriu. B\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed to byly jen 4 z 24. To potvrzuje, \u017ee za poklesem nestoj\u00ed jen jedna specifick\u00e1 oblast, ale celkov\u00e9 zhor\u0161en\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d pr\u016fmyslem.\u00a0(iii)<\/b>Po dlouh\u00e9 dob\u011b je p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek ze strany automotive negativn\u00ed. V prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku se z\u00e1sluhou v\u00fdroby automobil\u016f dr\u017eel \u010desk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl v \u010dern\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech. B\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed automobilov\u00e1 produkce poklesla meziro\u010dn\u011b o 1,3 % a podobn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky nelze vzhledem k ochabuj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vce vylou\u010dit ani v dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n
To ostatn\u011b potvrzuje i\u00a0statistika nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek<\/b>, kde do\u0161lo k meziro\u010dn\u00edmu poklesu o 5,2 %. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b automotive hodnota zak\u00e1zek proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zhruba stagnuje. Ukazatel je ale uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fd v b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch a vzhledem k inflaci 6,9 % v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed jde i zde o re\u00e1ln\u00fd pokles.<\/p>\n
Z pohledu\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce<\/b>\u00a0je zaj\u00edmav\u00fd pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed po\u010det evidovan\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f, kter\u00fd byl v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed o 2,2 % (2,0 % v srpnu), zat\u00edmco pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 mzda zam\u011bstnanc\u016f v pr\u016fmyslu proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vzrostla o 7,2 %. To je v souladu s p\u0159edstihov\u00fdmi ukazateli jako je index n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f, kter\u00fd ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu varuje p\u0159ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm zam\u011bstnanosti ve zpracovatelsk\u00e9m sektoru.<\/p>\n Z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek je potvrzen\u00edm neut\u011b\u0161iv\u00e9 situace, ve kter\u00e9 se tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika nach\u00e1z\u00ed. Pr\u016fmysl zpomaluje pod t\u00edhou slab\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed i zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, negativn\u011b na podnikatele dopad\u00e1 i realizovan\u00fd rychl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Vzhledem ke zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmu se v\u00fdhledu z\u00e1rove\u0148 kles\u00e1 i optimismus ohledn\u011b budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje, co\u017e postupn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a r\u016fstu nezam\u011bstnanosti.<\/p>\n Slab\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled a obavy o vlastn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed situaci vedou k opatrnosti i spot\u0159ebitele, d\u00edky \u010demu\u017e z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se v\u0161emi ostatn\u00edmi st\u00e1ty EU v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod p\u0159edpandemickou \u00farovn\u00ed. To dohromady p\u0159edstavuje toxick\u00fd mix pro tuzemskou ekonomiku, kter\u00e1 \u2013 jako jedin\u00e1 v r\u00e1mci EU \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b nepoko\u0159ila \u00farovn\u011b z Q4\u201919.<\/p>\n Celoro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek HDP za rok 2023 tak patrn\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed pod na\u0161im p\u016fvodn\u00edm odhadem (0,0 %), bl\u00ed\u017ee k -0,5 %, pomalej\u0161\u00ed bude i o\u017eiven\u00ed v roce 2024.<\/b><\/p>\n Hor\u0161\u00ed bude i leto\u0161n\u00ed v\u00fdsledek pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkce, kde nam\u00edsto o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 stagnace v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed dojde k poklesu.<\/p>\n Zdroj: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik Raiffeisenbank<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u010cesk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce b\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b poklesla o 7,8 %, negativn\u00ed je i v\u00fdsledek po…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-90","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-statistika","category-vyroba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=90"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90\/revisions\/94"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/91"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=90"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=90"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakers.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=90"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n v % r\/r<\/b><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Bloomberg,\u00a0kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u011b neo\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 data<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n